A Little More Upside

Completed (+580%).
This post is now closed. Final results were:

Ethereum Trades (cumulative return of +580%)
1. Long: $2,600 to $3,750 (+440%)
2. Short: $3,750 to $3,650 (+36%)
3. Long: $3,600 to $3,630 (+8%)
4. Long: $3,698 to $3,735 (+10%)
5. Long: $3,840 to $3,755 (-22%)

MPLX: $0.168 to $0.166 (-1.2%)

30 July Update

Four profitable leveraged trades later, I am once again waiting. Simplicity is important as it gives you clean triggers. My view is the following.

In order for a run up to $4,100-4,400 to happen, this diagonal trendline needs to be crossed, so in simple terms I will long once again upon a breakout with a plan to exit half at $3,930 (right under previous high of $3,941) and the remainder between $4,100 and $4,400. From that pont I do expect downside back to these levels and a lot of ranging/boredom (views are dynamic and can change).

28 July Update

When I set out to long Ethereum I thought we'd get to $4,100. But as I said views are dynamic and they change as we get more information through price and time.

My target has increased. Here's why.

$4,100 was in line with resistance on ETH, and would have paired nicely with the resistances on Total2 and Total3. But Ethereum has been growing at 1.2x the pace of Total2 since the 24th of July bottom.

Total2 went up 8.82% and Ethereum up 10.36%; divide both and round it, you get 1.2. This is called beta in finance.

So by looking at where the resistance area is on Total2 and Total3, calculating the percentage left to get there and multiplying it by 1.2 we get a target area of $4,100 -> $4,440. Which falls in line with the initial overshoot Ethereum did in May 2021.

I've taken half the position off at $3,840. I will close another quarter (half of the remaining position) at $4,100 and close the rest at $4,400.

‍

Original Post Below

Two days ago when ETH was trading at $3,750-3,800, I shared my thoughts with you on downside being likely to happen, and it did.

Even though I initially viewed price as going to $3,400, my stance changed and earlier today I shared my view on us being bottomed and likely to head into $3,800 then $4,100.

Now I will lay my exact thoughts in a more structured post, as well as one more token I am looking at for the short-term.

Views Are Dynamic

Everyone loves predictions, but being rigid with your views is a sure way to get humbled by the market.

I thought downside would get to $3,400, but price action started sending a different message this morning at $3,600. Had I been rigid I would likely get caught off guard soon.

As cool as it would sound to predict future movements, thinking you can predict how millions of traders will exactly act ahead of time and being certain you’re right is ignorance. Market views are always dynamic, and we’re not here to sound cool, we’re here to share our views that will keep on changing anytime the market sends a different signal. So don’t hold us to any one view.

Here is the current one.

Ethereum

Even though I was correct on downside, I want to explain why my view of $3,400 changed and sent a message stating I believe downside is over at $3,600:

  1. Bitcoin kept seeing buyers step in at $117,400, it would have needed to get to $116,000 for Ethereum to fall further.
  2. The downside move was very structured and did not lead to any major liquidations, for us to move down to $3,400 I would have wanted to see more volatility.
  3. A “Falling Wedge” pattern emerged, this is a pattern that supports upside continuation.

While technically that pattern has a target of $3,800, I do believe we move higher and catch people off guard there. Why?

We started moving down before hitting any major resistance, which in the case of ETH would be $4,000-$4,100. And I’ve seen this happen in crypto over the years: minor downside (people short late), more upside into new highs (people long late) and then major downside (people caught off guard).

This 10-15% move to the upside coincides perfectly with the resistance on Total3 (see “Acceleration” post from June 27th for more details).

So overall, I believe we go up, then sharply down, then range for a few weeks before seeing the Cup & Handle breakout on Total3 and altcoins really running.

So on Total3 which is an index for altcoins, this is sort of what I expect (I’m bad at drawing sorry).

Notes:

  1. I am not naive to believe I can pre-predict this much in advance, this is just my current view which is prone to change as price develops and sends more data about the market.
  2. I would completely wrong if price of ETH goes back to $3,550 and I’ll give up my trade and analyze again.
  3. I am only willing to be a degenerate longer AFTER I see a clear Total3 breakout. This is all noise pre-breakout that I am carefully trading.
  4. Once again, views are dynamic (meaning they can change).

Metaplex

There’s one token I am interested in buying during this upside move, besides being long Ethereum, and that is Metaplex (MPLX) on Solana.

For the short-term I will allocate 5% into it with plans to sell it in full at $0.30 to avoid riding downside.

Solana’s hype has always been about instant-spin memecoins, small caps and the launchpads that feed them (tens of thousands of tiny tokens popping up every week). In June alone, users minted more than one million tokens through those pads; every single one paid a toll to Metaplex’s Token-Metadata program.

Metaplex isn’t some new launchpad, it’s always been the plumbing. Each metadata call drops a fee into Metaplex’s treasury and, by policy, 50 % of all protocol fees are market-bought into $MPLX at month-end. June fees hit $1.7 m, so the DAO bought back $1.1 m worth of MPLX. And now they’re launching “Genesis”.

Think of Genesis as Stripe for token launches: audited contracts for presales, auctions, vesting, stuff launchpads currently duct-tape together. First live sale (DeFiTuna, 22 July) raised $2.5 m; seven more launches are queued. And, any launchpad can plug in, keep its front-end and let Genesis handle the messy back-end for a cut of the raise.

The point isn’t that revenue 10x’s overnight. It’s that even a modest uptick (one or two large sales a month) adds a second, fatter stream to the same buy-back loop. Traders are already front-running that reflexive story; you can see it in the chart.

Plan is very clear on the chart. No need for more words.

FYI, my bigger bet is on Ethereum right now. This is secondary for me. My confidence levels in ETH moving up sharply is about 60-70%, for MPLX it’s 30%.

FAQs

Q: Is this outcome guaranteed?

A: You believe a random Instagram page? None of this is investment advice, we’re just sharing our opinion for informational purposes.

Q: What about other tokens you hold? Will you sell when ETH gets to $4,100?

A: To be determined. But I keep in mind that this is all pre-breakout noise.

‍

This post is now closed. Final results were:

Ethereum Trades (cumulative return of +580%)
1. Long: $2,600 to $3,750 (+440%)
2. Short: $3,750 to $3,650 (+36%)
3. Long: $3,600 to $3,630 (+8%)
4. Long: $3,698 to $3,735 (+10%)
5. Long: $3,840 to $3,755 (-22%)

MPLX: $0.168 to $0.166 (-1.2%)

30 July Update

Four profitable leveraged trades later, I am once again waiting. Simplicity is important as it gives you clean triggers. My view is the following.

In order for a run up to $4,100-4,400 to happen, this diagonal trendline needs to be crossed, so in simple terms I will long once again upon a breakout with a plan to exit half at $3,930 (right under previous high of $3,941) and the remainder between $4,100 and $4,400. From that pont I do expect downside back to these levels and a lot of ranging/boredom (views are dynamic and can change).

28 July Update

When I set out to long Ethereum I thought we'd get to $4,100. But as I said views are dynamic and they change as we get more information through price and time.

My target has increased. Here's why.

$4,100 was in line with resistance on ETH, and would have paired nicely with the resistances on Total2 and Total3. But Ethereum has been growing at 1.2x the pace of Total2 since the 24th of July bottom.

Total2 went up 8.82% and Ethereum up 10.36%; divide both and round it, you get 1.2. This is called beta in finance.

So by looking at where the resistance area is on Total2 and Total3, calculating the percentage left to get there and multiplying it by 1.2 we get a target area of $4,100 -> $4,440. Which falls in line with the initial overshoot Ethereum did in May 2021.

I've taken half the position off at $3,840. I will close another quarter (half of the remaining position) at $4,100 and close the rest at $4,400.

‍

Original Post Below

Two days ago when ETH was trading at $3,750-3,800, I shared my thoughts with you on downside being likely to happen, and it did.

Even though I initially viewed price as going to $3,400, my stance changed and earlier today I shared my view on us being bottomed and likely to head into $3,800 then $4,100.

Now I will lay my exact thoughts in a more structured post, as well as one more token I am looking at for the short-term.

Views Are Dynamic

Everyone loves predictions, but being rigid with your views is a sure way to get humbled by the market.

I thought downside would get to $3,400, but price action started sending a different message this morning at $3,600. Had I been rigid I would likely get caught off guard soon.

As cool as it would sound to predict future movements, thinking you can predict how millions of traders will exactly act ahead of time and being certain you’re right is ignorance. Market views are always dynamic, and we’re not here to sound cool, we’re here to share our views that will keep on changing anytime the market sends a different signal. So don’t hold us to any one view.

Here is the current one.

Ethereum

Even though I was correct on downside, I want to explain why my view of $3,400 changed and sent a message stating I believe downside is over at $3,600:

  1. Bitcoin kept seeing buyers step in at $117,400, it would have needed to get to $116,000 for Ethereum to fall further.
  2. The downside move was very structured and did not lead to any major liquidations, for us to move down to $3,400 I would have wanted to see more volatility.
  3. A “Falling Wedge” pattern emerged, this is a pattern that supports upside continuation.

While technically that pattern has a target of $3,800, I do believe we move higher and catch people off guard there. Why?

We started moving down before hitting any major resistance, which in the case of ETH would be $4,000-$4,100. And I’ve seen this happen in crypto over the years: minor downside (people short late), more upside into new highs (people long late) and then major downside (people caught off guard).

This 10-15% move to the upside coincides perfectly with the resistance on Total3 (see “Acceleration” post from June 27th for more details).

So overall, I believe we go up, then sharply down, then range for a few weeks before seeing the Cup & Handle breakout on Total3 and altcoins really running.

So on Total3 which is an index for altcoins, this is sort of what I expect (I’m bad at drawing sorry).

Notes:

  1. I am not naive to believe I can pre-predict this much in advance, this is just my current view which is prone to change as price develops and sends more data about the market.
  2. I would completely wrong if price of ETH goes back to $3,550 and I’ll give up my trade and analyze again.
  3. I am only willing to be a degenerate longer AFTER I see a clear Total3 breakout. This is all noise pre-breakout that I am carefully trading.
  4. Once again, views are dynamic (meaning they can change).

Metaplex

There’s one token I am interested in buying during this upside move, besides being long Ethereum, and that is Metaplex (MPLX) on Solana.

For the short-term I will allocate 5% into it with plans to sell it in full at $0.30 to avoid riding downside.

Solana’s hype has always been about instant-spin memecoins, small caps and the launchpads that feed them (tens of thousands of tiny tokens popping up every week). In June alone, users minted more than one million tokens through those pads; every single one paid a toll to Metaplex’s Token-Metadata program.

Metaplex isn’t some new launchpad, it’s always been the plumbing. Each metadata call drops a fee into Metaplex’s treasury and, by policy, 50 % of all protocol fees are market-bought into $MPLX at month-end. June fees hit $1.7 m, so the DAO bought back $1.1 m worth of MPLX. And now they’re launching “Genesis”.

Think of Genesis as Stripe for token launches: audited contracts for presales, auctions, vesting, stuff launchpads currently duct-tape together. First live sale (DeFiTuna, 22 July) raised $2.5 m; seven more launches are queued. And, any launchpad can plug in, keep its front-end and let Genesis handle the messy back-end for a cut of the raise.

The point isn’t that revenue 10x’s overnight. It’s that even a modest uptick (one or two large sales a month) adds a second, fatter stream to the same buy-back loop. Traders are already front-running that reflexive story; you can see it in the chart.

Plan is very clear on the chart. No need for more words.

FYI, my bigger bet is on Ethereum right now. This is secondary for me. My confidence levels in ETH moving up sharply is about 60-70%, for MPLX it’s 30%.

FAQs

Q: Is this outcome guaranteed?

A: You believe a random Instagram page? None of this is investment advice, we’re just sharing our opinion for informational purposes.

Q: What about other tokens you hold? Will you sell when ETH gets to $4,100?

A: To be determined. But I keep in mind that this is all pre-breakout noise.

‍

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