Acceleration

Without Bitcoin, nothing goes up.

First step is to see where the crypto market as a whole is going, because if a bear market is around the corner, no amount of research can lead to large profits on smaller assets.

This post breaks down how we view crypto for the next 6-12 months.

Why this Post?

Buying small and medium market cap tokens without knowing where the broader market is headed is a pointless endeavor. I always go top-down, and while we’ve previously hidden our methods, today we showcase it all to you in The Club.

State of Bitcoin

Charts tend to show the full story. A price graph shows you what every single trader/investor is thinking, all together, based off every piece of information out there. There is no purer source of truth than price graphs.

Price tells us the story happening between the buyers and the sellers.

In the typical terms, price shows us what’s known as a bull flag. This is consolidation that happens after a sharp move up where buyers are “catching their breath” before continuation. Technically, the size of the continuation matches the one of the initial move up. In this case, Bitcoin added +37,500 USD to its price in the initial move, therefore price move by the same amount up from wherever the breakout happens. This should lead to somewhere near $145,300 (+/- $3,000).

The price level at $106,125 has acted as a pivot since December, ideally we don’t want to see price slide under it decisively.

The story being told here is that sellers were caught off-guard in the initial move up and they now feel behind. At some point, buyers start taking partial profits while sellers keep trying to short and the momentum consolidates in a controlled range (the bull flag). During that time, bears short, buyers slowly step back in, until we get a breakout from the flag and shorts start closing positions and buyers piling in with larger volume; all of which pushes price higher.

This falls in line with the Fed’s projected rate cuts later this year as well.

Note: Nothing is definitive, markets are a game of probabilities, our role is to play the side with the highest odds. And, a bull flag is not confirmed until we get a breakout.

State of Altcoins

If you’ve kept up with our content, you know our opinion remains that a full bull market is yet to occur. Bitcoin while at all time highs, is an exception this cycle (a dislocation) because it had unusual inflows from corporations (like Strategy) and ETFs. Altcoins remain in their recovery phase, under all time highs; notably seen on ETH and SOL.

One way to view altcoins as a whole is to look at some indexes, this one is an aggregate of their market caps over time. In this particular case I am seeing a pattern emerge on the index Total3, which is composed of the entire crypto market cap (minus BTC and ETH).

While unconfirmed to date, price seems to be building a Cup & Handle. Only a breakout past the highs will confirm the pattern. Until then, this is conjecture.

• The Cup (2022-2024): From the 2022 blow-off top to the 2023 floor, sidelined capital watched a brutal 80 % flush. Smart money quietly absorbed that distressed supply, then marched price back to the old ceiling at ≈ $838 B. That round trip shows sellers emptied their clip; buyers proved they can push higher.
• The Handle (Q2-Q3 2025): Now price is easing 25-30 % lower in a tight arc. Early longs bank chips, late shorts probe, but dips keep getting soaked. Volume is muted—evidence bears lack real conviction. This is the “last-call shake-out” before the main event.
• Continuation Maths: Classical measure: add the cup depth (~$838 B) to the rim. A clean weekly close above the rim adds another $838 B to altcoins.

Nothing is guaranteed, but the odds lean to the upside as long as that handle stays orderly.

What Next?

The altcoin market is projected to add close to a trillion in value if we get that breakout, so my question is: where will that value go to?

One thing is for sure, most tokens won’t get any of that value, so my job as an investor is to position myself in tokens with the highest probability of capturing that flow.

One side is Internet Capital Markets (covered in the previous post), but where else?

At the moment I am meticulously deep in Base, looking at every token and figuring out what my positions need to be once Bitcoin hits that breakout (if the bull flag fails it’s okay, better be ready for opportunities if they come then have them come and not be ready—key mindset).

Why Base? Because Coinbase has a lot of influence, just look at their stock performance (COIN) and you’ll see what I mean.

New posts will come soon, on Base. Expect them next week.

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