Turbulence & ATHs

A mania first carries out those that bet against it and then those that bet with it.

I was wrong on touching grass, at least partially. I am a bull by nature, purely because the dollar denominator is worthless so prices naturally rise over time.

But, I do have a small sense of pride of having done a +70% short on one of the strongest tokens: ENA. But, I overestimated downside and missed out on an upside move.

With that said, it’s not time to touch grass and Trump wants markets higher so that’s what will happen.

First, Turbulence

Prices have been going up since end of 2023, but what is most interesting in bull runs is post-breakout as we start seeing new highs. This has been a much awaited moment.

The turbulence:

• Could happen as touch previous highs, dump and then cross.
• Could happen as cross previous highs, retest and then go up.
• Could not happen at all.

So for me, this is a moment where I want to be positioned pre-breakout and HODL. I won’t try to play the turbulence game and short in this market because once we cross, that is where the majority of the money usually happens. It will likely be short-lived, fast, volatile and an emotional rollercoaster but it’ll be worth it.

I invite you to read the “Acceleration” post from June 27th as well.

Bitcoin Expectations

In Acceleration I noted down Bitcoin’s breakout and its target of $145,000+. Here I’ll update what to look out for, but overall I believe we see some altcoins continue to do better.

There are multiple routes BTC might take, including just staying in the range, but all is fine as long as we don’t break downwards (under 115.7). That is the one thing to look out for.

Ethereum

Current king, purely from the passive bid happening from institutions (via ETFs and DATs such as SBET and BMNR). If you look at the numbers, ETFs and DATs have bought 844,000 ETH in the last 30 days, while only 73,178 ETH were issued (issuance minus burn).

Demand is 12x higher than supply.

Ethereum cleared the biggest resistance of $4,000 ($3,985 to be exact) and I want to see this hold. Pullbacks into it present very assymetric long opportunities but at the rate of growth we have, it looks unlikely that we pullback there soon.

Target 1: $8,000

Target 2: $12,000

Target 3: $16,000

We might not get to the third target, or even the second, but I choose optimism and I don’t subscribe to the mindset that we broke out from a 4 year long resistance just to go to $6,000.

Note: We have heavy resistance at $4,700-$4,900. Turbulence expected there.

Solana

Just like Ethereum was irrelevant then became the greatest asset in crypto, Solana will experience the same fate but only after the institutional acceleration starts because right now institutions are only absorbing 1.6x SOL’s issuance which is not enough to go parabolic yet.

This chart shows us SOL/ETH. If it’s bearish then Ethereum does better and if it’s bullish Solana performs better. Ever since it started breaking down at the start of July my replies to you in The Club have been bearish Solana.

I suspect we have support soon (green box) but I won’t rotate until I see a strong bounce paired with an institutional bid absorbing at least 5x issuance.

Institutional Tokens

I think it is pretty obvious that it is institutions driving prices up and not retail, so I want to bid what they’ll bid. I have a long list of tokens I am quite bullish on: AAVE, CRV, LINK, ENA, HYPE and AERO. All of which I believe go beyond their ATHs, but one in particular stands out to me: ONDO.

Before you continue, read this (very important that you do): https://x.com/0x100x_/status/1940042791343591767

The US needs more buyers to keep the engine of growth running and continue to dominate, we’ve also seen both the White House and Trump push for tokenization of assets. And sure many are doing it but none on ONDO’s scale.

Getting stocks onchain for global 24/7 KYC-less access is just as important as getting stablecoins in every humans’ hands for the US government.

I believe ONDO lags behind for a little bit but it is important to me to be positioned pre-breakout above $1.20. I will sell MPLX’s 10% allocation to ONDO, as well as my AERO earmarked allocation (total of 20%) and will diamond hand this position until $3 before I take any profits. This is a go big or go home position for me.

Will I buy AERO again? Yes. I will sell LAUNCHCOIN and rotate that into AERO (8.5%). The poor performance of LAUNCHCOIN is very annoying, I’ll buy higher if it trends again but don’t want to hold this while it keeps draining even though prices are fundamentally fantastic.

Now, as much conviction as I may have, remember that I may be wrong and never trade on borrowed conviction. And, it is "safer" to enter above $1.20 as it would be a confirmed breakout.

Thank you for your attention to this matter.

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Disclaimer: Nothing here is financial advice—just brain sparks from a random (but not your average) Instagram page.

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