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The question everyone asks: “When will Altcoins finally perform?”
Well I’m going to give you the definitive answer.
3 Charts You Need to Watch
To view these charts you need to use TradingView.
In general, people look at Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D on TradingView) and they try to determine at which level the dominance starts falling because that’d mean Altcoins will be outpacing BTC (usually by a lot). But, it’s impossible to determine a turning point from which that falls; it’s an inaccurate method. So, we’ve developed our own.
Instead of just looking at Altcoins via their indexes priced in dollars, I price them in Bitcoin. The numbers that show don’t matter, but the trend does. If they are trending up, that means Altcoins are outpacing BTC (usually to the upside), but if they’re trending down then it means BTC is outpacing Altcoins (either by falling less or going up more on average).
Those charts went up a simple +40% when AI Agent tokens returned +1,550% in three months.
Note: In the previous post, we outlined our expectations for BTC for the next few months (it was up).
Chart 1: Total2/BTC
Type “CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2/CRYPTO:BTCUSD” on TradingView’s supercharts to see it.
Chart 2: Total3/BTC
Type “CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3/CRYPTO:BTCUSD” on TradingView’s supercharts to see it.
Chart 3: Others/BTC
Type “CRYPTOCAP:OTHERS/CRYPTO:BTCUSD” on TradingView’s supercharts to see it.
Where’s The Floor?
Clearly BTC has been outpacing Altcoins, you can see it in the charts and your portfolio performance (and emotions too). But until when? Until one of two things happens:
- Prices get to the green box, which is another -35% on average (negligible in crypto, we’re close).
- Somehow Altcoins start showing strength and form a low, then a high and then a higher low.
I find (1) to be the more likely case and timeline-wise we perhaps get there by end of summer.
Remember: a falling ratio doesn’t always equal falling dollar prices. BTC at $150 k with ETH only at $3 k still prints that -30 % gap. Focus on relative speed, not absolute price.
Portfolio Playbook
Disclaimer: Nothing here is financial advice—just brain sparks from a random (but not your average) Instagram page.
There are two kinds of portfolios in crypto:
- Passive: You buy BTC, maybe ETH, SOL and some DeFi tokens and wait multiple years without actively managing it. This is usually best for most people.
- Active: You keep moving, trying to capture profits by being early on narratives. This is harder and much more stressful.
This post only matters for the active approach.
A portfolio should first strive to protect capital (limit losses) and then generate profits (second priority, not first). I personally achieve this by controlling my allocation sizes.
These charts have been trending down for a long time , which is why I size small on narrative trades and keep my larger exposure in stablecoins/BTC and ETH/SOL.
BUT, I am not one to try and time the market, given that we’re only about -35% away from a bottom, I will start sizing up slowly from now. I won’t get caught off guard because we bounced slightly higher than the boxes.
Note: These charts don't tell us "which" alts will run hardest—they simply tell us when. The "which" comes down to relentless research, which you'll continue to see in The Club (more this week).
You’ve not yet seen a full-blown bull run.
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