September Crash?

Everyone and their mothers are screaming for a bearish September, are they right?

In this post we’ll be looking at the hard facts, sharing trade ideas and explain positioning going into this month. Remember that views are always dynamic and can change if facts change.

Why Are People Bearish?

If you look at past years and how Bitcoin has performed during the month of September, you’ll see the following data.

So 57% of the time Bitcoin has gotten a bearish September with an average return of -12.64% and 43% were bullish with an average return of +7.41%. This is the reason people are bearish…

A few things matter:

1. 8 Septembers had negative return, 6 of those happened during bear markets.
2. September 2012 had QE3 (Quantitative Easing/Printing) announced and September 2024 had rate cuts, both of which ended up positive.

This seasonality data needs to be taken with all of its facts, not standalone. We have rate cuts coming this month (90% chance) so if anything history tells us the month will be bullish. Now, I am not exactly bullish but I wanted to get this seasonality data out of the way and say that it’s stupid. You cannot base your positioning on singular returns without context added to them. You can only position yourself by looking at current facts, so let’s do that.

Macro Environment

Since the start of 2025, inflation prints (CPI and PCE) were trending down for the first three months before ramping back up slowly and showing increased inflation from May until July. If you follow usual logic, it would not make sense that the Fed cuts rates into rising inflation, especially as it sits above their 2% target. But “look at what they’re doing, not what they’re saying”.

The market is pricing in a 90% chance of rate cut in September, so basically the Fed is cutting rates into rising inflation and they will get inflation higher. Why?

When faced with the problem of rising debt you have two solutions:

1. Fiscal Austerity: Cut down expenses and increase your income to resolve the imbalance. This is what Trump tried to do at the start (DOGE, Tariffs, etc).
2. Fiscal Dominance: You inflate your way out of the problem. By letting inflation run hot, your GDP increases faster than your debt making both the interest expense and debt as a whole more manageable. Roman, British and Spanish empires all used this method to fix their debt problem. That’s the route the US is taking. It has been signaled to us by Trump after his Big Beautiful Bill and is now being signaled by the Fed. This is why gold is pushing into new highs by the way and it will continue to do so unless Powell reverses his stance.

This month we have a few data prints coming that matter to markets:

1. JOLT (Sep 3): measures job openings, gives a feel for labor demand.
2. ADP Employment (Sep 4): private payrolls, early gauge ahead of NFP
3. NFP (Sep 5): the market-moving jobs report: payrolls, unemployment rate, and wages.
4. CPI (Sep 11): The inflation data, this will partially confirm whether we’re getting a rate cut.
5. FOMC (Sep 17): Fed announces rates (cut or uncut).

The first three prints are employment related and the labor market is what the Fed is supposedly cutting for. The last two, CPI and then FOMC, are the last step towards a rate cut.

I won’t go deeper into macro, as there a lot of nuances to cover that would make this extra-long, but from a general perspective: if inflation runs hot, dollar will weaken and asset prices would go up until something breaks. This is why I am of the view that we’re in the last phases of a bubble.

State of Altcoins

The “Turbulence & ATHs” post remains correct, we are in the “turbulence” phase and we have very high odds of hitting monumental breakouts in the coming weeks which would lead us to euphoria.

In this post I will focus on a smaller timeframe, explaining my positioning.

In the current area, no decision can be made. I must wait for one of these breakouts to trigger action. I am holding my SOL long but it will be closed should price go with the “drop first, rise second” route. In either case I expect an eventual breakout from the “Turbulence Area”, it’s just a matter of which route price takes in the near term, in September.

Prices per scenario:

1. Rise first, drop second: ETH would hit $5,200 and SOL $240 before pulling back.
2. Drop first, rise second: ETH ~$3,800 and SOL ~$170 before new highs.

This is a moment of indecision, where waiting pays more than clicking. All routes lead higher eventually. In the case of upside first, I have a long watchlist of altcoins to long besides holding spot. I will update my trades in the comments section (then in the upcoming “Messages” section post-upgrade).

Should we take the drop first route, I will look to de-risk half of my spot holding to buy lower, as well as enter shorts.

The route we take will get chosen by Bitcoin, so let’s see where it stands.

Bitcoin

Both routes have roughly equal odds, as I said this is a very indecisive moment for crypto, patience until the market shows its hand pays. This is a very simple chart, don’t overthink it.

There are a lot of other routes we might take, such as getting to $117,000 and then dropping back, etc. In the near term there is a lot of indecision, but in the medium to longer term owning assets is quite literally the only option the Fed is leaving us with to not lose fast and big on inflation.

This is the reason why I am starting to believe that even if we hit euphoria later this year and crash, I’d want to own Bitcoin again soon after and not wait an entire year to buy again. A lot of the tokens would have gotten too overvalued and would need a long correction period, but not Bitcoin. And even taking profits at the end of the cycle, unless the bond market gets fixed, I’d want to sell and take majority of profits in gold. Gold would have gone up during that time too, but not as much as our internet coins. These are some preemptive thoughts for now but an important conversation to have with yourself because we are now living in the era of accelerated inflation.

Small Caps

As you know, I like buying small caps, and many of you do too, but until we get a breakout I cannot buy any. I have a long watchlist, one of which is FLOCK which rose a lot in August, but look at what happened to it now. Small caps are unreliable in moments of turbulence, any rise they have gets crushed.

LAUNCHCOIN and LIGHT are two other examples of this mess that small caps get into. We will soon post about small cap tokens again. Long watchlist built already.

Trades

After confirmation from the Total2es chart on which route we’re taking, I have a few trades for either case. I’ll present to you the bullish ones today as that is where I am slightly leaning for the next few days. Of course my view is dynamic and chosen by the overall altcoins chart presented above.

Curve (CRV)

Ethena (ENA)

These are two prime trades I am seeing in the market. I am not presenting them to you for you to blindly follow, I am presenting them to you so you can build your own process.

FAQs

Q: Why aren’t you posting new tokens?

A: Holding BTC, ETH, SOL, AERO, ONDO as well as smaller caps in some AI Agents and ICM is the exposure I need to the market now. Post-breakout that will change because then not every rally gets crushed in smaller caps. I am transparent with you, but expect one mid-cap this month.

Q: So are you bullish or bearish September?

A: Neither, I follow the chart. The chart hasn’t yet made a decision. I am slightly leaning bullish (short-term, long term always bullish crypto) but I need the market to confirm it.

Q: If we break down, what will you do?

A: I will look to reduce my exposure by half across the board in order to rebuy lower, and I will look for shorts for my trading account.

Q: Is the bull market over?

A: We’re just entering near highs on altcoins, Fed is only now starting to ease and stocks have just broken out to new highs. I would say far from over but I’d give it a few months. I can confirm if we see euphoria (rapidly accelerating prices into ridiculous valuations).

Disclaimer: Nothing here is financial advice—just brain sparks from a random (but not your average) Instagram page.