Public Analysis Archive · Since October 2024

The Record

Every thesis documented. Every outcome recorded. Wins and losses, with the thinking behind both. This is how trust should be built.

+415%
Blended Return · 14 months
+836%
Active Allocation
+683%
Trading
Portfolio: 50% Core Holdings (BTC, ETH, SOL), 45% Active Allocation, 5% Trading. Core tracks the market by design. We don't take credit for beta. Returns above reflect Active Allocation and Trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Published to subscribers · February 5, 2025 · BTC below $70,000

A lot of people are leaving crypto right now. Accounts going quiet. People selling at losses and moving on. Influencers pivoting to other things because engagement is down and it's not fun to talk about crypto when prices are falling.

I need you to do one thing for me.

When crypto is trading at new highs, and it will, when tokenization is on the front page of every major outlet, when the same people who quit are suddenly back with opinions and hindsight, remember this moment.

Remember who was here at the bottom doing this kind of work. Not recycling someone else's tweet. Not posting vague "we're early" motivation. Actually sitting down, spending weeks building a comprehensive framework, running the numbers, and handing you a playbook, while everyone else was checking out.

Published Analysis

Newest first. Tap to expand.

Trillions in traditional assets (stocks, bonds, real estate) are moving onto blockchain infrastructure. The protocols that provide the rails (exchanges, lending, bridges) will capture fees on a dramatically larger base of volume. BlackRock listed its $2B+ BUIDL fund on a decentralized exchange. The CLARITY Act advanced through Congress. Larry Fink called this shift "as significant as email was to the postal service." This thesis is being built in real time. Individual token deep-dives, valuation models, and exit conditions are being published to subscribers as each section completes.

Documented Outcome
Active thesis. Framework rolling out to subscribers now.
Feb 20Long ETH at $1,945

Analysis suggested a flush into the $1,800s would be a bear trap, a liquidity grab designed to shake out weak hands before reversing aggressively.

ETH flushed to the $1,800s and reversed sharply. Exactly as documented.

Feb 17"This Is Rotation, Not a Crash"

Macro analysis: NASDAQ decline was software sector repricing (Salesforce, ServiceNow, Intuit), not systemic collapse. Dow flat, banks green, Q4 earnings +13.2%, CPI 2.4% below expectations.

Markets stabilized and recovered. Sector rotation, not risk-off.

Feb 13Long BTC at $67,000

Major support holding. Funding rates deeply negative. Shorts overcrowded and paying. Macro backdrop not supporting crash narrative.

Bitcoin moved from $67K toward $72K within two weeks.

Feb 5Accumulation Begins. SOL at $93

Started building long positions while launching the first section of the Mega-Trend Memo. Added at $81 for an average entry of ~$87.

SOL recovered to ~$100+ from documented entry levels.

Documented Outcome
Within three weeks: BTC +7.5%, ETH +11.5%, SOL +13%. All reasoning published before the moves occurred.

Identified a bear flag pattern on Bitcoin's chart structure. Mapped three price levels with a measured target of $64,000 to $66,500. Published while prevailing sentiment was overwhelmingly bullish and most participants were positioned long. The market consensus was that Bitcoin would continue higher. The analysis said otherwise.

Documented Outcome
Bitcoin reached $65,000 exactly. All three mapped levels were hit in sequence before a liquidation wick to $60,000.

After the October crash, Hyperliquid had lost half its open interest. Every other major exchange recovered. Hyperliquid did not. The market was distracted by a temporary revenue spike from post-crash volatility. The analysis identified the structural decay underneath: when volatility normalized, revenue would collapse, and the valuation would follow. This was not a hunch. It was the result of analyzing over 4,000 data points on exchange flows, open interest recovery patterns, and revenue sustainability.

Documented Outcome
Shorted at $30. Fell to $22. The structural thesis played out as documented.

"September is always bad for crypto." That was the consensus, built on historical seasonality and a data sample that didn't hold up to scrutiny. The analysis showed the narrative was lazy and the underlying data pointed to strength. Six long positions were taken against the crowd.

Documented Outcome
6 positions, 4 wins. Including +124% on XPL and +130% on SOL. The consensus was wrong.

Canton, an enterprise blockchain backed by Microsoft, Deloitte, and Goldman Sachs, was gaining significant traction. No token. No direct investment path. The analysis found SEND, the only liquid infrastructure project building on Canton. A classic setup: high-quality, under-the-radar, with a clear catalyst the market was ignoring.

Documented Outcome
SEND re-rated by the market. +118% return documented.

In late October 2024, decentralized AI was dismissed as a toy. We built a diversified portfolio across 13 projects. 10% in the highest-conviction idea (VIRTUAL at $0.17), 0.5 to 2% across a basket of earlier-stage projects. 11 of 13 positions were profitable. The average return exceeded 1,550%. But the return is not the story. The exit is. On January 15, 2025, after extreme euphoria and a volatile recovery (VIRTUAL had crashed from $5.00 to $2.20, then bounced to $4.00), we observed a structural break. Most people saw a dip to buy. We saw the kind of damage narratives don't recover from. We issued a note to subscribers. We explained the reasoning. And we exited the entire sector.

Documented Outcome
Within 100 days, the assets we sold had crashed by over 92%. This single decision, the exit not the entry, was the difference between capturing the returns and riding the market back to near-zero.

Subscribers had access to every analysis above before the outcomes were known.

Full reasoning, entry conditions, and exit frameworks, published in real time.

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The Losses

Trust isn't built on a curated highlight reel. We size positions expecting some will fail, and we document them the same way we document wins.

-47.5% EAI
Loss
Enterprise AI thesis didn't play out as expected
10% allocation → -4.75% portfolio impact
-97.4% LISTEN
Loss
AI Wave 2 project failed to gain traction
5% allocation → -4.87% portfolio impact
-57% LAUNCHCOIN
Loss
Market did not reward the category
5% allocation → -2.85% portfolio impact
-39.5% TORN
Loss
Privacy narrative didn't materialize
2% allocation → -0.79% portfolio impact

These are the necessary cost of a venture-style approach. We expect losses, and we size positions accordingly. The wins, driven by core theses, far outweigh the losses. A 50% loss requires 100% to break even. A 90% loss requires 1,000%. Knowing when to exit matters more than knowing what to buy.

The Framework

Thesis-driven thinking of the best venture capitalists. Risk-obsessed capital preservation of the great macro traders.

I
Identify the Non-Consensus Narrative
Technologically significant categories that are under-explored and mispriced. The idea that looks like a toy. The narrative the crowd dismisses but has the potential to reshape the landscape.
II
Build Conviction, Position for Asymmetry
"It's not whether you're right or wrong, it's how much you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong." Size to maximize upside. Limit damage. Simple math that almost no one does.
III
Master the Exit
The most important and least discussed skill in investing. We do not fall in love with positions. We capture the heart of the move. Then we leave. Everyone talks about entries. Almost no one talks about exits.

Before The Club

Public analysis shared on Instagram before any paid product existed. Published freely, no monetization, no pitch.

Oct 2024

Highlighted Bitcoin at $68,000 with a public thesis for $90,000.

BTC reached $90,000+.

Jul 2024

Outlined Bitcoin weakness and upcoming break of $60,000 with a bottom at $50,000.

Played out as published.

Jun 2024

Identified Across Protocol (ACX) at $0.40, an unknown project bridging millions in volume.

ACX reached $1.40+ within six months. +250%.

Mar 2024

Highlighted TON at $3.80 before any mainstream attention.

TON ran to $8.30. +118%.

388,000 followers. 40,000,000+ views. 2,200,000+ engagements. 320,000+ saves. 280,000+ shares. Zero paid promotion. Every number earned through the work.

How We Document

Every entry on this page was published to subscribers before the outcome was known.

01
Analysis is Published
A thesis is shared with subscribers. Reasoning, key levels, success conditions, and failure conditions.
02
The Market Moves
Time passes. The thesis plays out, doesn't play out, or remains open. We don't alter or delete published analysis.
03
The Outcome is Documented
Whether the analysis was right or wrong, the result is recorded here with original context preserved.

What Subscribers Get

01
Investment Memos
Deep analysis on individual tokens. What it does, what it's worth, what the risks are. Not what to do. How to think about it.
02
Macro Context
Interest rate decisions, money flows, regulatory shifts, translated into what they actually mean for crypto.
03
Published Exit Reasoning
Every thesis includes exit conditions. When they're met, we publish the reasoning. You see the full lifecycle.
04
Ongoing Analysis
Every thesis maintained as conditions change. When the story shifts, you'll have the updated thinking first.

In Their Own Words

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"I'm still very new to all this and learning everyday but the breakdown of it all is interesting! Great read."

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"Just wow! I read everything and that is my impression."

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You only need to be right once.

The next thesis is already in progress. The question is whether you'll have the analysis when it matters.

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